Fessing up on what I've got.

In my view, the time to buy puts is now. For some peculiar reason, the political and media cycle has flipped over to one where the madness of the housing market has become clear. A blizzard of negative press has arisen, and politicians have already started passing the buck. Thus my plan to write today on additional details on the housing market will simply be delayed.

Observers of depth of these markets will see that I have almost nothing invested in them. If I had more capital I would put more in, but I don't.

Code	Expiry	Exercise Price ($)	C/P	Option Type	Contract Size	In the Money
ANZGO7	29/06/2017	26	PUT	Buy to Open	100
BLDZ18	28/09/2017	6	PUT	Buy to Open	100
CBATP9	30/03/2017	69	PUT	Buy to Open	100
NABG18	29/06/2017	27.63	PUT	Buy to Open	103
NCMW67	23/02/2017	21.5	PUT	Buy to Open	100	Yes
WBCLQ9	28/09/2017	30	PUT	Buy to Open	100

What is the most risky of these? It's Newcrest and Commonwealth bank, they have a shorter time horizon. Market timing isn't something I can do, and in my view very few really can except when there is major scandals(the outcome of which can be predicted via good analysis of available or non available information), M&A or political events. Thus every purchase was made with the original option around 5-10% out of the money.

At this moment, I'm approximately -5% over the past two months but have good feelings about things.

The current questions on my mind are twofold.

1. Are warrants a reasonable alternative to options, given they are much more widely available.
2. Are REITs a good enough proxy on the corporate real estate market. I have severe misgivings about it, but don't expect severe issues until mid-late 2017 at the earliest. Firms take at least 3-6 months from the good times to really start slashing payroll, and at least another 6 months to get out of leases in a down market.

This blog is not investment advice and should not be taken as such. Please consult a financial adviser for details on finance.